In Latest CMS Forecast Shows Big Drug Spending Growth Through 2025, I examined the July 2016 drug spending forecasts from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS).
Alas, last week’s election exploded these projections. Today, I analyze CMS’s official pre-election insights about payment for outpatient prescriptions drugs in 2025. I then speculate on how these figures might change under the new administration, which wants to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act (ACA). Based on the most well-known Republican proposals, I project a rebound in the employer-sponsored market compared with the CMS baseline projections.
But never forget a truism of the projection business: A good forecaster is not necessarily smarter than everyone else—he merely has his ignorance better organized.
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