The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) recently released its updated forecasts for national health expenditures. See the Health Affairs article: National Health Expenditure Projections, 2016–25: Price Increases, Aging Push Sector To 20 Percent Of Economy. (Available for free to subscribers and to others for purchase.)
These new data don’t account for any changes in policy or the law, such a repeal of the Affordable Care Act (ACA). They do, however, show drug spending growth below that of CMS’s July 2016 projections. The updated forecasts predict that through 2025, drug spending will grow at roughly the same rate as will total U.S. healthcare spending.
By 2025, the U.S. is expected to have spent about $597 billion annually on outpatient prescription drugs. Just seven months ago, the 2025 figure was projected to $615 billion. Below, I also review drug spending projections by payer. CMS expects that drug spending will account for a stable share of private insurance, but a bigger part of Medicare spending.
Note that these projections will be revised when the law changes. For now, we have only CMS’s vision. Reality will render its own opinion soon.
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