ICYMI, the boffins at the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) recently released their new projections for U.S. National Health Expenditures (NHE). Unfortunately, the coronavirus almost immediately made these predictions obsolete.
It’s still useful to analyze these forecasts for a pre-pandemic examination of U.S. healthcare spending. A few highlights of the 2024 outlook:
- Total U.S. spending on healthcare was projected to grow, from $3.6 trillion in 2018 to $5.0 trillion in 2024.
- Spending on hospitals and professional services was expected to grow by a combined $800 billion—more than 60% of CMS’s projected $1.4 trillion increase in U.S. healthcare spending. That’s consistent with historical trends.
- Net spending on outpatient prescription drugs in 2024 was projected to shrink to less than 9% of total U.S. spending. That would be its lowest level since 2000.
As usual, the actual facts run counter to the popular narrative that drug spending is skyrocketing relative to any other aspect of U.S. healthcare. Of course, the coronavirus will alter these projections. Below, I speculate how COVID-19 and its aftermath will affect healthcare and prescription drug spending.
Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future. Feel free to add your own outlook in the comment section below.
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