The Trump Drug Pricing Plan: Short Term Reprieve, Long Term Disruption

Last Friday, the U.S. Department of Health & Human Services (HHS) released American Patients First, a report billed as “The Trump Administration Blueprint to Lower Drug Prices and Reduce Out-of-Pocket Costs.” This administration’s blueprint offers a thoughtful diagnosis of U.S. drug pricing along with the unintended consequences and warped incentives of our drug channel system.

The report also proposes a very long list of more than 50 regulatory and legislative fixes. It therefore doesn’t translate to quick action or simple sound bites. Many people are discounting the plan as no big deal and therefore underestimating how radically the system could change.

Below, I review some of its more radical notions—and highlight why the document's ideas pose substantial long-term risks for drug channel companies and their profit models. I also examine proposed changes for modernizing the Medicare Part D program and discuss two popular but ineffective ideas that were omitted from the document. While I don’t cover it in this article, I suspect changes to the Medicare Part B program may arrive soon.

The blueprint avoids facile diagnoses and simplistic solutions. It therefore looked on Friday like a weak political move. However, I expect last Friday’s announcement will mark the start of many coming changes.

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